NBA Postseason Best Bets (5/17)
Alex Christenson
It’s only fitting that the Pac-12’s final game is a huge one with CFP implications as Washington takes on Oregon in Las Vegas. Presumably the winner will go on to the College Football Playoff with the winning quarterback being in the driver’s seat for the Heisman Trophy as well.
What makes this even more intriguing is that these two teams played a tremendous game in Washington earlier this season. Let’s take a look at Friday’s massive rematch.
Oregon vs. Washington
8 p.m. ET Friday, ABC
Oregon -9.5
Last Meeting
These two went back and forth in Washington as the Huskies got an 18-yard touchdown pass from Michael Penix Jr. to Rome Odunze with 1:38 left to get the 36-33 victory. There were six lead changes as Washington blew an 11-point lead in the third quarter. There were over 950 yards of offense between the two with only one turnover as well. Bo Nix had two touchdowns passing while Penix had four through the air. This contest lived up to all of the hype it had the first time around.
Keys to Victory
Washington Ground Game
The Huskies are at their best when they aren’t having their QB drop back to pass 50 times per game because it allows the offensive line to be aggressive towards the defense instead of constantly pass blocking. Dillon Johnson ran for 100 yards or more three times this season and they were in victories over Oregon, USC and Utah. The Ducks allow just 92.6 rushing yards per game overall this season so Johnson finding so much success last time against them will definitely be on their minds. Even if the ground game isn’t working early, will Washington keep going with it or just abandon it completely?
Bo Nix
The former Auburn quarterback has been tremendous this season completing almost 80% of his passes with 37 touchdowns to just two interceptions. Washington has a defense you can definitely beat through the air as only nine teams have allowed more passing yards per game. He was almost perfect back in Week 6 going 33/44 for 337 yards with two touchdown passes and no interceptions. Nix will have to continue to be at his best although Oregon’s rushing attack is more than capable of carrying this game.
Special Teams
Neither Grady Gross of UW nor Camden Lewis of Oregon are the greatest kickers in the sport. Lewis is 10/16 on FGs with two of those misses coming between 30 and 39 yards. He’s 3/7 from 40-plus as well so we may see the Ducks going for it more on fourth down. Gross is 11/15 on field goals with three of those misses coming between 30 and 39 yards and the other coming from 43 yards last week. Sometimes the players we don’t spend a ton of time on are the ones who make a difference in a game like this, although field goals probably aren’t going to win this one.
Prediction
Most likely this will be the best game of championship weekend with so much at stake. The line for the first meeting was Washington -3.5, but now it’s Oregon -9.5 on a neutral field. There’s no denying that the Ducks are playing better football than the Huskies right now, outscoring their opponents by 156 points since the loss to UW. The total was 67.5 then and it’s 66 now, so there’s no real change there. Jordan James is whom I’m going to focus on for this one. I think Oregon runs the ball plenty and that means James and Bucky Irving should tee off. James has 10 touchdowns overall and is +105 to do so on Caesars Sportsbook. I think there’s some value there with the backup running back from Oregon.
The Pick
Jordan James to score a touchdown (+105, Caesars)
