Week 13 Player Props: Receiving Yards for Tucker Kraft from EV Insight

Tucker KraftReceiving Yards

Right now, Tucker Kraft’s receiving yards prop is set at 25.5 yards (-110/-110).

The public has bet the UNDER down to 25.5 (-110) after it opened @ 27.5 (-114).

Pros

This game’s spread implies a passing game script for the Packers, who are -5.5-point underdogs.
Based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics, the predictive model expects the Green Bay Packers to pass on 60.6% of their chances: the 6th-greatest rate on the slate this week.
In this game, Tucker Kraft is anticipated by our trusted projection set to place in the 81st percentile when it comes to tight ends with 4.2 targets.
While Tucker Kraft has accounted for 2.3% of his offense’s targets in games he has played this year, the model projects him to be a more integral piece of Green Bay’s pass game in this contest at 12.0%.
With a terrific 89.4% Adjusted Catch% (88th percentile) this year, Tucker Kraft ranks as one of the most reliable receivers in the league when it comes to TEs.

Cons

The predictive model expects the Packers to run the 7th-fewest plays on offense among all teams this week with 64.0 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The Packers have called the 8th-fewest plays in the NFL this year, totaling a mere 55.5 plays per game.
Opposing teams teams have been wary to test the pass defense of the Kansas City Chiefs, averaging the 4th-fewest attempts in the league (a lowly 31.3 per game) this year.
In regards to air yards, Tucker Kraft ranks in the paltry 20th percentile among tight ends this year, accruing just 2.0 per game.
The Chiefs defense has yielded the 5th-fewest adjusted receiving yards per game in the NFL (just 39.0) versus tight ends this year.

Projection

THE BLITZ
26
Receiving Yards