Week 13 Player Props: Rushing Yards for Breece Hall

Breece HallRushing Yards

Right now, Breece Hall’s rushing yards prop is set at 52.5 yards (-110/-120).

The public has bet the OVER up to 52.5 (-110) after it opened @ 51.5 (-115).

Pros

The predictive model expects this game to see the 4th-highest number of plays run among all games this week at 131.6 plays, given the traits of each team and game dynamics.
The predictive model expects Breece Hall to accrue 13.9 carries this week, on average, putting him in the 76th percentile among running backs.
Breece Hall has received 56.5% of his offense’s run game usage this year, placing him in the 89th percentile among running backs.

Cons

The New York Jets may rely on the pass game less in this week’s contest (and call more carries) because they be forced to use backup QB Tim Boyle.
The New York Jets have a new play-caller this season in offensive coordinator Nathaniel Hackett, and our trusted projections expect their pass/run mix to lean 1.8% more towards passing than it did last season (adjusted for context).
The projections expect the New York Jets to be the 7th-least run-focused team among all teams this week with a 40.2% run rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
The New York Jets have called the 6th-fewest plays in the NFL this year, averaging a measly 54.9 plays per game.
Breece Hall has run for quite a few less adjusted yards per game (49.0) this season than he did last season (66.0).

Projection

THE BLITZ
61
Rushing Yards