Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Robert TonyanReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 13
Bears vs. Packers
Right now, Robert Tonyan’s receiving yards prop is set at 24.5 yards (-110/-110).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 24.5 (-110) after it opened @ 27.5 (-115).
Pros
- THE BLITZ projects Robert Tonyan to total 4.0 targets in this contest, on average, ranking in the 79th percentile among TEs.
- Robert Tonyan has been a big part of his team’s offense, earning a Target Share of 14.0% this year, which puts him in the 83rd percentile among TEs.
- The Green Bay Packers offensive line grades out as the 8th-best in the league this year in protecting the passer, which has a positive impact on all passing game statistics across the board.
- Robert Tonyan has been among the top pass-catching TEs this year, averaging an impressive 32.0 yards per game while ranking in the 78th percentile.
- Robert Tonyan’s receiving reliability have gotten a boost this year, with his Completion% rising from 70.8% to 83.7%.
Cons
- The Packers are a 3.5-point favorite this week, likely leading to a rushing game script.
- THE BLITZ projects the Green Bay Packers to be the 9th-least pass-heavy offense on the slate this week with a 55.5% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- THE BLITZ projects the Packers to run the least total plays among all teams this week with 59.4 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
- The weather forecast calls for 13-mph wind in this game. High wind generally means lower pass volume (and higher run volume) and worse passing effectiveness.
- Opposing teams have averaged 27.8 pass attempts per game versus the Chicago Bears defense this year: least in football.
Projection
THE BLITZ
27
Receiving Yards
27
Receiving Yards
