Week 13 Player Props: Receiving Yards for Mike Evans from EV Insight

Mike EvansReceiving Yards

Right now, Mike Evans’s receiving yards prop is set at 59.5 yards (-115/-115).

The public has bet the UNDER down to 59.5 (-115) after it opened @ 64.5 (-115).

Pros

The leading projections forecast Mike Evans to garner 8.7 targets in this week’s contest, on average, placing him in the 90th percentile among WRs.
Mike Evans has notched many more air yards this season (128.0 per game) than he did last season (117.0 per game).
With a RATE1-RATE2 point boost in WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced metric that weighs high-value offensive involvement) from last year to this one, Mike Evans has been more heavily utilized in his offense’s pass attack.
With an excellent 71.0 adjusted receiving yards per game (90th percentile) this year, Mike Evans places among the best pass-catching WRs in the league.
Mike Evans’s 4.28 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) this year reflects a substantial gain in his effectiveness in space over last year’s 2.6% rate.

Cons

Our trusted projections expect the Buccaneers offensive gameplan to skew 4.6% more towards rushing than it did last year (adjusted for context) with offensive coordinator Dave Canales now calling the plays.
This week’s line implies a rushing game script for the Buccaneers, who are favored by 3.5 points.
Based on the game dynamics and the underlying approaches of each team, this contest is forecasted by the projections to see only 128.6 total plays called: the 4th-lowest number out of all the games this week.
Opposing quarterbacks teams have been afraid to rely on the passing game too much against the Carolina Panthers, totaling the 2nd-fewest attempts in the league (a measly 30.2 per game) this year.
This year, the formidable Carolina Panthers defense has surrendered a meager 121.0 adjusted receiving yards per game versus opposing wide receivers: the 4th-fewest in football.

Projection

THE BLITZ
73
Receiving Yards