Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Kyle PittsReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 13
Jets vs. Falcons
Right now, Kyle Pitts’s receiving yards prop is set at 30.5 yards (-110/-110).
Pros
- The projections expect the Atlanta Falcons to run the 5th-most total plays on the slate this week with 66.6 plays, based on their underlying play style and game dynamics.
- The Falcons have run the 6th-most plays in football this year, totaling a colossal 61.5 plays per game.
- Our trusted projections expect Kyle Pitts to total 5.3 targets this week, on balance, ranking him in the 91st percentile among tight ends.
- When it comes to pass protection (and the strong effect it has on all passing attack statistics), the O-line of the Falcons ranks as the 9th-best in football this year.
- With an impressive 36.0 adjusted yards per game through the air (76th percentile) this year, Kyle Pitts rates as one of the best tight ends in the pass game in football.
Cons
- Given their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics, our trusted projections expect the Atlanta Falcons to pass on 49.8% of their plays: the lowest frequency on the slate this week.
- Opposing offenses teams have been wary to test the pass defense of the New York Jets, averaging the 5th-fewest attempts in the league (a lowly 33.0 per game) this year.
- After averaging 77.0 air yards per game last season, Kyle Pitts has significantly declined this season, now pacing 58.0 per game.
- Kyle Pitts’s 43.8 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced statistic that calculates high-value offensive usage) has been significantly worse this season than it was last season at 63.1.
- Kyle Pitts’s talent in grinding out extra yardage have tailed off this season, compiling just 2.76 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) compared to a 6.61 mark last season.
Projection
THE BLITZ
30
Receiving Yards
30
Receiving Yards
