Prime-Time First TD Bets — Monday Night Football, Week 16
Alex Christenson
Keenan AllenReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 13
Patriots vs. Chargers
Right now, Keenan Allen’s receiving yards prop is set at 88.5 yards (-120/-110).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 88.5 (-110) after it opened @ 94.5 (-115).
Pros
- At the moment, the 5th-most pass-centric team in football (65.3% adjusted for context) according to the projection model is the Chargers.
- The predictive model expects the Los Angeles Chargers to call the 3rd-most plays on offense among all teams this week with 67.0 plays, given their underlying propensities and game dynamics.
- The leading projections forecast Keenan Allen to total 11.6 targets this week, on balance, ranking him in the 100th percentile when it comes to wide receivers.
- Keenan Allen’s 31.5% Target% this season marks a meaningful gain in his passing attack volume over last season’s 26.4% figure.
- Keenan Allen’s 105.0 adjusted yards per game on passes this season shows a noteable gain in his receiving prowess over last season’s 80.0 figure.
Cons
- The Los Angeles Chargers boast a new play-caller this season in offensive coordinator Kellen Moore, and the model projects their pass/run mix to tilt 2.1% more towards rushing than it did last season (adjusted for context).
- The Chargers are a 4.5-point favorite in this week’s game, likely leading to a rushing game script.
- This year, the daunting Patriots pass defense has conceded the 9th-least yards-after-the-catch in football to opposing WRs: a feeble 3.6 YAC.
Projection
THE BLITZ
92
Receiving Yards
92
Receiving Yards
