Gross Bombs: NFL Props for Week 16
Josh Gross
JuJu Smith-SchusterReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 13
Bengals vs. Chiefs
Right now, JuJu Smith-Schuster’s receiving yards prop is set at 53.5 yards (-110/-110).
Pros
- THE BLITZ projects the Kansas City Chiefs to be the 2nd-most pass-centric team on the slate this week with a 67.5% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 2nd-highest volume of plays run out of all the games this week at 133.1 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
- The Kansas City Chiefs have called the 7th-most plays in football this year, totaling a whopping 60.7 plays per game.
- JuJu Smith-Schuster has posted a lot more receiving yards per game (68.0) this year than he did last year (28.0).
- The Cincinnati Bengals pass defense has displayed bad efficiency against wide receivers this year, surrendering 8.94 yards-per-target to the position: the 10th-most in the NFL.
Cons
- JuJu Smith-Schuster has run fewer routes this season (73.8% Route% in games he has played) than he did last season (93.0%).
- The Cincinnati Bengals pass defense has performed very well when opposing WRs have gotten into space, conceding an average of 4.00 yards-after-the-catch this year: the 7th-least in football.
- The Cincinnati Bengals linebackers grade out as the 5th-best collection of LBs in the league this year in pass coverage.
- The Kansas City Chiefs have faced a stacked the box on a mere 9.3% of their plays since the start of last season, least in football. Positioning an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.
- The Kansas City Chiefs have gone no-huddle on just 1.8% of their plays outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (least in football). This slows down the pace, resulting in less volume and stat accumulation.
Projection
THE BLITZ
64
Receiving Yards
64
Receiving Yards
