Week 13 Player Props: Receiving Yards for Ja'Marr Chase from EV Insight

Ja’Marr ChaseReceiving Yards

Right now, Ja’Marr Chase’s receiving yards prop is set at 59.5 yards (-114/-114).

The public has bet the OVER up to 59.5 (-114) after it opened @ 57.5 (-114).

Pros

The Bengals may take to the air less in this contest (and hand the ball off more) because they be forced to utilize backup QB Jake Browning.
At a -10.5-point disadvantage, the Bengals are giant underdogs in this week’s contest, indicating much more of a reliance on throwing than their typical game plan.
Given their underlying play style and matchup dynamics, the model projects the Cincinnati Bengals to pass on 65.6% of their plays: the 3rd-highest frequency among all teams this week.
The Jacksonville Jaguars defense has been a bit of pass funnel this year, tempting opposing teams to attempt the 5th-most passes in the league (38.5 per game) this year.
Ja’Marr Chase has run a route on 96.9% of his offense’s dropbacks this year, ranking him in the 97th percentile among wideouts.

Cons

The model projects the Bengals to run the fewest plays on offense on the slate this week with 61.5 plays, based on their underlying play style and game dynamics.
The Bengals have run the fewest plays in football this year, totaling a mere 55.3 plays per game.
In regards to pass protection (and the impact it has on all passing attack statistics), the O-line of the Bengals profiles as the worst in the league this year.
Ja’Marr Chase’s skills in generating extra yardage have worsened this season, totaling a mere 5.41 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) compared to a 6.64 mark last season.
As it relates to cornerbacks in covering pass-catchers, Jacksonville’s group of CBs has been great this year, profiling as the 4th-best in the NFL.

Projection

THE BLITZ
79
Receiving Yards