Week 13 Player Props: Receiving Yards for Gerald Everett from EV Insight

Gerald EverettReceiving Yards

Right now, Gerald Everett’s receiving yards prop is set at 23.5 yards (-115/-115).

The public has bet the UNDER down to 23.5 (-115) after it opened @ 25.5 (-115).

Pros

At the moment, the 5th-most pass-centric team in football (65.3% adjusted for context) according to the projection model is the Chargers.
The predictive model expects the Los Angeles Chargers to call the 3rd-most plays on offense among all teams this week with 67.0 plays, given their underlying propensities and game dynamics.
The projections expect Gerald Everett to accrue 3.6 targets in this week’s contest, on balance, putting him in the 75th percentile when it comes to tight ends.
Gerald Everett’s receiving reliability have gotten a boost this season, with his Adjusted Catch Rate rising from 69.2% to 81.3%.
When it comes to safeties in defending pass-catchers, New England’s collection of safeties has been awful this year, projecting as the 8th-worst in the NFL.

Cons

The Los Angeles Chargers boast a new play-caller this season in offensive coordinator Kellen Moore, and the model projects their pass/run mix to tilt 2.1% more towards rushing than it did last season (adjusted for context).
The Chargers are a 4.5-point favorite in this week’s game, likely leading to a rushing game script.
After accumulating 31.0 air yards per game last season, Gerald Everett has seen a big decrease this season, now boasting 15.0 per game.
With a RATE1-RATE2 point regression in WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced metric that calculates high-value offensive volume) from last season to this one, Gerald Everett has been used much less in his offense’s passing offense.
This year, the daunting Patriots defense has surrendered the 10th-least adjusted yards-per-target in football to opposing tight ends: a measly 6.8 yards.

Projection

THE BLITZ
21
Receiving Yards