Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Garrett WilsonReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 13
Jets vs. Falcons
Right now, Garrett Wilson’s receiving yards prop is set at 52.5 yards (-110/-120).
The public has bet the OVER up to 52.5 (-110) after it opened @ 51.5 (-115).
Pros
- The New York Jets may rely on the pass game less in this week’s contest (and call more carries) because they be forced to use backup QB Tim Boyle.
- The New York Jets have a new play-caller this season in offensive coordinator Nathaniel Hackett, and our trusted projections expect their pass/run mix to lean 1.8% more towards passing than it did last season (adjusted for context).
- Accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics, the model projects the New York Jets to pass on 59.8% of their chances: the 7th-highest rate among all teams this week.
- The predictive model expects this game to see the 4th-highest number of plays run among all games this week at 131.6 plays, given the traits of each team and game dynamics.
- The model projects Garrett Wilson to earn 10.7 targets this week, on balance, ranking him in the 98th percentile when it comes to WRs.
Cons
- The New York Jets have called the 6th-fewest plays in the NFL this year, averaging a measly 54.9 plays per game.
- When talking about protecting the passer (and the importance it has on all pass attack stats), the O-line of the Jets grades out as the worst in the league this year.
- With a subpar 59.8% Adjusted Catch Rate (24th percentile) this year, Garrett Wilson places among the most unreliable receivers in football among WRs.
- Garrett Wilson’s pass-game efficiency has declined this year, averaging a mere 6.48 adjusted yards-per-target compared to a 7.63 figure last year.
- The Atlanta Falcons defense has given up the 5th-fewest adjusted receiving yards per game in the league (just 131.0) versus WRs this year.
Projection
THE BLITZ
68
Receiving Yards
68
Receiving Yards
