Prime-Time First TD Bets — Monday Night Football, Week 16
Alex Christenson
Evan EngramReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 13
Jaguars vs. Bengals
Right now, Evan Engram’s receiving yards prop is set at 51.5 yards (-110/-110).
The public has bet the OVER up to 51.5 (-110) after it opened @ 41.5 (-114).
Pros
- The Jacksonville Jaguars have called the 8th-most plays in the league this year, totaling a staggering 60.3 plays per game.
- In this game, Evan Engram is expected by the predictive model to place in the 95th percentile when it comes to TEs with 6.7 targets.
- Evan Engram has posted a massive 34.0 air yards per game this year: 88th percentile when it comes to TEs.
- With a terrific 47.0 adjusted receiving yards per game (93rd percentile) this year, Evan Engram places as one of the top TE receiving threats in the NFL.
- The Cincinnati Bengals defense has conceded the most adjusted receiving yards per game in the NFL (68.0) vs. TEs this year.
Cons
- This week’s line suggests an extreme rushing game script for the Jaguars, who are heavily favored by 10.5 points.
- Our trusted projections expect the Jacksonville Jaguars to be the least pass-oriented team among all teams this week with a 53.8% pass rate, accounting for their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics.
- Given the game dynamics and the underlying tendencies of each team, this game is forecasted by the model to see just 124.1 offensive plays called: the lowest number out of all the games this week.
Projection
THE BLITZ
44
Receiving Yards
44
Receiving Yards
