Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Diontae JohnsonReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 13
Steelers vs. Cardinals
Right now, Diontae Johnson’s receiving yards prop is set at 48.5 yards (-110/-110).
The public has bet the OVER up to 48.5 (-110) after it opened @ 45.5 (-114).
Pros
- The predictive model expects the Steelers to run the 7th-most total plays on the slate this week with 66.0 plays, based on their underlying traits and game dynamics.
- In this week’s contest, Diontae Johnson is expected by the projection model to place in the 85th percentile when it comes to wide receivers with 7.8 targets.
- After accruing 89.0 air yards per game last year, Diontae Johnson has seen a big uptick this year, currently averaging 94.0 per game.
- With a RATE1-RATE2 point boost in WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced metric that weighs high-value offensive usage) from last year to this one, Diontae Johnson has been more heavily used in his team’s air attack.
- With a stellar 57.0 adjusted yards per game on passes (79th percentile) this year, Diontae Johnson ranks among the leading pass-catching wide receivers in football.
Cons
- This week’s spread implies a running game script for the Steelers, who are favored by 6.5 points.
- Given their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics, our trusted projections expect the Pittsburgh Steelers to pass on 53.2% of their plays: the 2nd-lowest rate among all teams this week.
- The Pittsburgh Steelers have run the 9th-fewest plays in football this year, totaling a measly 55.6 plays per game.
- The weather report calls for 14-mph wind in this game. High wind generally means reduced pass volume (and higher run volume) and lessened passing efficiency.
- Opposing QBs teams have been disinclined to pass too much against the Arizona Cardinals, totaling the 6th-fewest attempts in the NFL (a lowly 33.3 per game) this year.
Projection
THE BLITZ
51
Receiving Yards
51
Receiving Yards
