Week 13 Player Props: Receiving Yards for Diontae Johnson from EV Insight

Diontae JohnsonReceiving Yards

Right now, Diontae Johnson’s receiving yards prop is set at 48.5 yards (-110/-110).

The public has bet the OVER up to 48.5 (-110) after it opened @ 45.5 (-114).

Pros

The predictive model expects the Steelers to run the 7th-most total plays on the slate this week with 66.0 plays, based on their underlying traits and game dynamics.
In this week’s contest, Diontae Johnson is expected by the projection model to place in the 85th percentile when it comes to wide receivers with 7.8 targets.
After accruing 89.0 air yards per game last year, Diontae Johnson has seen a big uptick this year, currently averaging 94.0 per game.
With a RATE1-RATE2 point boost in WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced metric that weighs high-value offensive usage) from last year to this one, Diontae Johnson has been more heavily used in his team’s air attack.
With a stellar 57.0 adjusted yards per game on passes (79th percentile) this year, Diontae Johnson ranks among the leading pass-catching wide receivers in football.

Cons

This week’s spread implies a running game script for the Steelers, who are favored by 6.5 points.
Given their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics, our trusted projections expect the Pittsburgh Steelers to pass on 53.2% of their plays: the 2nd-lowest rate among all teams this week.
The Pittsburgh Steelers have run the 9th-fewest plays in football this year, totaling a measly 55.6 plays per game.
The weather report calls for 14-mph wind in this game. High wind generally means reduced pass volume (and higher run volume) and lessened passing efficiency.
Opposing QBs teams have been disinclined to pass too much against the Arizona Cardinals, totaling the 6th-fewest attempts in the NFL (a lowly 33.3 per game) this year.

Projection

THE BLITZ
51
Receiving Yards