Gross Bombs: NFL Props for Week 16
Josh Gross
Joe MixonRushing Yards
Player Props – Week 13
Jaguars vs. Bengals
Right now, Joe Mixon’s rushing yards prop is set at 46.5 yards (-104/-131).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 46.5 (-131) after it opened @ 46.5 (-115).
Pros
- The predictive model expects Joe Mixon to accrue 15.6 carries in this contest, on balance, placing him in the 86th percentile when it comes to running backs.
- Joe Mixon has been a much bigger part of his team’s running game this year (79.7% Carry Share in games he has been on the field) than he was last year (68.6%).
- Joe Mixon has picked up 55.0 adjusted rushing yards per game this year, one of the largest figures in football among running backs (80th percentile).
Cons
- The Bengals may take to the air less in this contest (and hand the ball off more) because they be forced to utilize backup QB Jake Browning.
- At a -10.5-point disadvantage, the Bengals are giant underdogs in this week’s contest, indicating much more of a reliance on throwing than their typical game plan.
- Based on their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics, the model projects the Bengals to run on 34.4% of their opportunities: the lowest clip among all teams this week.
- The model projects the Bengals to run the fewest plays on offense on the slate this week with 61.5 plays, based on their underlying play style and game dynamics.
- Opposing offenses have run for the 5th-fewest adjusted yards in the league (just 91.0 per game) versus the Jaguars defense this year.
Projection
THE BLITZ
64
Rushing Yards
64
Rushing Yards
