Week 13 Player Props: Receiving Yards for Christian Kirk from EV Insight

Christian KirkReceiving Yards

Right now, Christian Kirk’s receiving yards prop is set at 50.5 yards (-115/-115).

The public has bet the OVER up to 50.5 (-115) after it opened @ 50.5 (-110).

Pros

The Jacksonville Jaguars have called the 8th-most plays in the league this year, totaling a staggering 60.3 plays per game.
In this week’s contest, Christian Kirk is expected by our trusted projection set to place in the 75th percentile among wide receivers with 6.7 targets.
Christian Kirk has been a big part of his team’s offense, garnering a Target Share of 22.3% this year, which ranks him in the 82nd percentile among wide receivers.
Christian Kirk has accrued significantly more air yards this year (76.0 per game) than he did last year (67.0 per game).
With an impressive 66.0 adjusted yards per game on passes (86th percentile) this year, Christian Kirk rates among the leading wide receivers in the game in football.

Cons

This week’s line suggests an extreme rushing game script for the Jaguars, who are heavily favored by 10.5 points.
Our trusted projections expect the Jacksonville Jaguars to be the least pass-oriented team among all teams this week with a 53.8% pass rate, accounting for their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics.
Given the game dynamics and the underlying tendencies of each team, this game is forecasted by the model to see just 124.1 offensive plays called: the lowest number out of all the games this week.
This year, the stout Cincinnati Bengals defense has conceded a meager 62.1% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing wide receivers: the 8th-smallest rate in the NFL.

Projection

THE BLITZ
62
Receiving Yards