Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Chase ClaypoolReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 13
Bears vs. Packers
Right now, Chase Claypool’s receiving yards prop is set at 30.5 yards (-110/-110).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 30.5 (-110) after it opened @ 34.5 (-115).
Pros
- The Bears are a heavy 7.5-point underdog in this week’s game, indicating an extreme passing game script.
- Chase Claypool has been among the top WRs in the NFL at picking up extra yardage, averaging a stellar 6.06 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) since the start of last season while checking in at the 93rd percentile.
- The Green Bay Packers pass defense has allowed the 6th-highest Completion% in the NFL (70.3%) versus wide receivers this year (70.3%).
- The Green Bay Packers pass defense has been particularly weak when opposing wide receivers have gotten into space, conceding an average of 5.08 yards-after-the-catch this year: the 6th-most in the NFL.
- The Green Bay Packers safeties profile as the worst group of safeties in the NFL this year in covering pass-catchers.
Cons
- The Chicago Bears will have a new play-caller this season in offensive coordinator Luke Getsy, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to tilt 8.5% more towards rushing than it did last season (in a neutral context).
- THE BLITZ projects the Chicago Bears to be the least pass-oriented offense among all teams this week with a 39.7% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- THE BLITZ projects this game to have the smallest volume of plays run out of all the games this week at 121.1 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
- The Chicago Bears have run the 7th-least plays in the NFL this year, averaging just 55.0 plays per game.
- Opposing teams have averaged 30.8 pass attempts per game against the Green Bay Packers defense this year: 2nd-least in football.
Projection
THE BLITZ
29
Receiving Yards
29
Receiving Yards
