Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Cade OttonReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 13
Buccaneers vs. Panthers
Right now, Cade Otton’s receiving yards prop is set at 29.5 yards (-110/-110).
Pros
- Cade Otton has been used less as a potential pass-catcher this year (86.7% Route Participation Rate in games he has played) than he did last year (63.9%).
- In this contest, Cade Otton is projected by the model to position himself in the 84th percentile when it comes to TEs with 4.7 targets.
- After accumulating 23.0 air yards per game last year, Cade Otton has shown good development this year, now boasting 30.0 per game.
- Cade Otton’s possession skills have gotten better this season, with his Adjusted Completion Rate rising from 66.2% to 75.2%.
- This year, the feeble Carolina Panthers defense has been torched for the 5th-most adjusted yards-per-target in the NFL to opposing tight ends: a colossal 8.33 yards.
Cons
- Our trusted projections expect the Buccaneers offensive gameplan to skew 4.6% more towards rushing than it did last year (adjusted for context) with offensive coordinator Dave Canales now calling the plays.
- This week’s line implies a rushing game script for the Buccaneers, who are favored by 3.5 points.
- Based on the game dynamics and the underlying approaches of each team, this contest is forecasted by the projections to see only 128.6 total plays called: the 4th-lowest number out of all the games this week.
- Opposing quarterbacks teams have been afraid to rely on the passing game too much against the Carolina Panthers, totaling the 2nd-fewest attempts in the league (a measly 30.2 per game) this year.
- With a feeble 0.00 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) (2nd percentile) this year, Cade Otton ranks among the top pass-game tight ends in the NFL in the open field.
Projection
THE BLITZ
31
Receiving Yards
31
Receiving Yards
