Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Amon-Ra St. BrownReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 13
Saints vs. Lions
Right now, Amon-Ra St. Brown’s receiving yards prop is set at 86.5 yards (-110/-110).
Pros
- Based on their underlying traits and game dynamics, the Lions are projected by the projection model to call 68.2 total plays in this game: the highest number on the slate this week.
- The Lions have called the 4th-most plays in the league this year, averaging a whopping 61.9 plays per game.
- The air attacks of both teams (in terms of both volume and effectiveness) stand to benefit from the still “weather” conditions (read: zero wind) inside this dome, while run volume may drop-off.
- In this contest, Amon-Ra St. Brown is forecasted by the model to land in the 98th percentile when it comes to WRs with 10.9 targets.
- Amon-Ra St. Brown has compiled significantly more adjusted receiving yards per game (103.0) this season than he did last season (77.0).
Cons
- With a 4-point advantage, the Lions are favored in this week’s contest, suggesting more of a focus on rushing than their standard approach.
- Our trusted projections expect the Lions to be the 9th-least pass-focused team in football (adjusted for context) at the present time with a 59.4% pass rate.
- Opposing offenses have averaged 34.7 pass attempts per game versus the Saints defense this year: 10th-fewest in the league.
- The New Orleans Saints pass defense has allowed the 4th-lowest Adjusted Completion% in the NFL (60.7%) versus WRs this year (60.7%).
- The Saints pass defense has shown good efficiency versus WRs this year, yielding 7.47 adjusted yards-per-target to the position: the 7th-fewest in the NFL.
Projection
THE BLITZ
95
Receiving Yards
95
Receiving Yards
