Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Adam ThielenReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 13
Buccaneers vs. Panthers
Right now, Adam Thielen’s receiving yards prop is set at 60.5 yards (-110/-110).
The public has bet the OVER up to 60.5 (-110) after it opened @ 58.5 (-114).
Pros
- Our trusted projections expect the Panthers offensive strategy to skew 7.2% more towards the passing game than it did last year (adjusted for context) with offensive coordinator Thomas Brown now calling the plays.
- The Panthers are a 3.5-point underdog in this week’s contest, likely leading to a passing game script.
- The Panthers have run the 3rd-most plays in the league this year, averaging a massive 62.4 plays per game.
- The Tampa Bay Buccaneers defense has been a notorious pass funnel this year, compelling opposing QBs to attempt the 6th-most passes in the NFL (38.4 per game) this year.
- Adam Thielen has notched quite a few more adjusted receiving yards per game (70.0) this year than he did last year (47.0).
Cons
- Based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics, the Panthers are forecasted by the projections to call only 64.5 offensive plays in this game: the 9th-lowest number among all teams this week.
- As it relates to protecting the quarterback (and the ramifications it has on all passing game metrics), the O-line of the Panthers ranks as the 2nd-worst in the NFL this year.
Projection
THE BLITZ
65
Receiving Yards
65
Receiving Yards
