NFL

Bets

November 30, 2023

Week 13 Player Props: Passing Yards for Trevor Lawrence from EV Insight

FTN Staff

Trevor LawrencePassing Yards

Right now, Trevor Lawrence’s passing yards prop is set at 251.5 yards (-125/-105).

The public has bet the OVER up to 251.5 (-125) after it opened @ 240.5 (-115).

Pros

The Jacksonville Jaguars have called the 8th-most plays in the league this year, totaling a staggering 60.3 plays per game.
Opposing teams have passed for the most adjusted yards in the league (267.0 per game) versus the Bengals defense this year.
This year, the anemic Bengals defense has been torched for the most adjusted yards-per-target in the league to the opposing side: a massive 8.69 yards.
When it comes to safeties in defending receivers, Cincinnati’s safety corps has been dreadful this year, grading out as the worst in the league.

Cons

This week’s line suggests an extreme rushing game script for the Jaguars, who are heavily favored by 10.5 points.
Our trusted projections expect the Jacksonville Jaguars to be the least pass-oriented team among all teams this week with a 53.8% pass rate, accounting for their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics.
Given the game dynamics and the underlying tendencies of each team, this game is forecasted by the model to see just 124.1 offensive plays called: the lowest number out of all the games this week.
The predictive model expects Trevor Lawrence to throw 31.6 passes in this contest, on balance: the fewest out of all QBs.

Projection

THE BLITZ
230
Passing Yards