Prime-Time First TD Bets — Monday Night Football, Week 16
Alex Christenson
Kenny PickettPassing Yards
Player Props – Week 13
Steelers vs. Cardinals
Right now, Kenny Pickett’s passing yards prop is set at 200.5 yards (-115/-115).
The public has bet the OVER up to 200.5 (-115) after it opened @ 194.5 (-115).
Pros
- The predictive model expects the Steelers to run the 7th-most total plays on the slate this week with 66.0 plays, based on their underlying traits and game dynamics.
- Opposing quarterbacks have completed passes at the 6th-highest level in the league vs. the Arizona Cardinals defense this year (74.2% Adjusted Completion%).
- This year, the poor Cardinals defense has been gouged for the 7th-most adjusted yards-per-target in football to opposing teams: a staggering 8.02 yards.
- As it relates to cornerbacks in covering receivers, Arizona’s group of CBs has been easily exploitable this year, profiling as the worst in the NFL.
Cons
- This week’s spread implies a running game script for the Steelers, who are favored by 6.5 points.
- Given their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics, our trusted projections expect the Pittsburgh Steelers to pass on 53.2% of their plays: the 2nd-lowest rate among all teams this week.
- The Pittsburgh Steelers have run the 9th-fewest plays in football this year, totaling a measly 55.6 plays per game.
- Opposing QBs teams have been disinclined to pass too much against the Arizona Cardinals, totaling the 6th-fewest attempts in the NFL (a lowly 33.3 per game) this year.
- Kenny Pickett profiles as one of the bottom passers in the league this year, averaging 179.0 adjusted yards per game while ranking in the 19th percentile.
Projection
THE BLITZ
196
Passing Yards
196
Passing Yards
