Week 13 Player Props: Passing Yards for Justin Herbert from EV Insight

Justin HerbertPassing Yards

Right now, Justin Herbert’s passing yards prop is set at 244.5 yards (-115/-115).

The public has bet the UNDER down to 244.5 (-115) after it opened @ 253.5 (-115).

Pros

At the moment, the 5th-most pass-centric team in football (65.3% adjusted for context) according to the projection model is the Chargers.
The predictive model expects the Los Angeles Chargers to call the 3rd-most plays on offense among all teams this week with 67.0 plays, given their underlying propensities and game dynamics.
The projections expect Justin Herbert to throw 36.6 passes in this game, on average: the 7th-most among all quarterbacks.
With an impressive tally of 261.0 adjusted passing yards per game (75th percentile), Justin Herbert stands among the leading passers in the NFL this year.
Opposing teams have completed passes at the 8th-highest rate in football vs. the Patriots defense this year (72.6% Adjusted Completion%).

Cons

The Los Angeles Chargers boast a new play-caller this season in offensive coordinator Kellen Moore, and the model projects their pass/run mix to tilt 2.1% more towards rushing than it did last season (adjusted for context).
The Chargers are a 4.5-point favorite in this week’s game, likely leading to a rushing game script.
This year, the fierce New England Patriots defense has surrendered the 9th-least yards-after-the-catch in the league to opposing teams: a puny 4.5 YAC.

Projection

THE BLITZ
236
Passing Yards