Prime-Time First TD Bets — Monday Night Football, Week 16
Alex Christenson
Justin HerbertPassing Yards
Player Props – Week 13
Patriots vs. Chargers
Right now, Justin Herbert’s passing yards prop is set at 244.5 yards (-115/-115).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 244.5 (-115) after it opened @ 253.5 (-115).
Pros
- At the moment, the 5th-most pass-centric team in football (65.3% adjusted for context) according to the projection model is the Chargers.
- The predictive model expects the Los Angeles Chargers to call the 3rd-most plays on offense among all teams this week with 67.0 plays, given their underlying propensities and game dynamics.
- The projections expect Justin Herbert to throw 36.6 passes in this game, on average: the 7th-most among all quarterbacks.
- With an impressive tally of 261.0 adjusted passing yards per game (75th percentile), Justin Herbert stands among the leading passers in the NFL this year.
- Opposing teams have completed passes at the 8th-highest rate in football vs. the Patriots defense this year (72.6% Adjusted Completion%).
Cons
- The Los Angeles Chargers boast a new play-caller this season in offensive coordinator Kellen Moore, and the model projects their pass/run mix to tilt 2.1% more towards rushing than it did last season (adjusted for context).
- The Chargers are a 4.5-point favorite in this week’s game, likely leading to a rushing game script.
- This year, the fierce New England Patriots defense has surrendered the 9th-least yards-after-the-catch in the league to opposing teams: a puny 4.5 YAC.
Projection
THE BLITZ
236
Passing Yards
236
Passing Yards
