Prime-Time First TD Bets — Monday Night Football, Week 16
Alex Christenson
Jordan LovePassing Yards
Player Props – Week 13
Packers vs. Chiefs
Right now, Jordan Love’s passing yards prop is set at 219.5 yards (-110/-110).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 219.5 (-110) after it opened @ 227.5 (-114).
Pros
- This game’s spread implies a passing game script for the Packers, who are -5.5-point underdogs.
- Based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics, the predictive model expects the Green Bay Packers to pass on 60.6% of their chances: the 6th-greatest rate on the slate this week.
- In this game, Jordan Love is expected by the projection model to have the 8th-most pass attempts among all quarterbacks with 36.4.
- The Chiefs safeties rank as the 10th-worst collection of safeties in the NFL this year in covering pass-catchers.
Cons
- The predictive model expects the Packers to run the 7th-fewest plays on offense among all teams this week with 64.0 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
- The Packers have called the 8th-fewest plays in the NFL this year, totaling a mere 55.5 plays per game.
- Opposing teams teams have been wary to test the pass defense of the Kansas City Chiefs, averaging the 4th-fewest attempts in the league (a lowly 31.3 per game) this year.
- Jordan Love rates as one of the least accurate passers in football this year with a 61.7% Adjusted Completion%, grading out in the 13th percentile.
- This year, the fierce Kansas City Chiefs defense has allowed a feeble 203.0 adjusted yards per game through the air to opposing teams: the 5th-best in the league.
Projection
THE BLITZ
244
Passing Yards
244
Passing Yards
