NFL

Bets

November 30, 2023

Week 13 Player Props: Passing Yards for Jake Browning from EV Insight

FTN Staff

Jake BrowningPassing Yards

Right now, Jake Browning’s passing yards prop is set at 220.5 yards (-101/-135).

The public has bet the OVER up to 220.5 (-101) after it opened @ 218.5 (-117).

Pros

The Bengals may take to the air less in this contest (and hand the ball off more) because they be forced to utilize backup QB Jake Browning.
At a -10.5-point disadvantage, the Bengals are giant underdogs in this week’s contest, indicating much more of a reliance on throwing than their typical game plan.
Given their underlying play style and matchup dynamics, the model projects the Cincinnati Bengals to pass on 65.6% of their plays: the 3rd-highest frequency among all teams this week.
The Jacksonville Jaguars defense has been a bit of pass funnel this year, tempting opposing teams to attempt the 5th-most passes in the league (38.5 per game) this year.
Jake Browning has been one of the most on-target quarterbacks in the league this year with an outstanding 71.3% Adjusted Completion%, ranking in the 87th percentile.

Cons

The model projects the Bengals to run the fewest plays on offense on the slate this week with 61.5 plays, based on their underlying play style and game dynamics.
The Bengals have run the fewest plays in football this year, totaling a mere 55.3 plays per game.
In regards to pass protection (and the impact it has on all passing attack statistics), the O-line of the Bengals profiles as the worst in the league this year.
As it relates to cornerbacks in covering pass-catchers, Jacksonville’s group of CBs has been great this year, profiling as the 4th-best in the NFL.

Projection

THE BLITZ
257
Passing Yards