Week 13 Player Props: Passing Yards for Baker Mayfield from EV Insight

Baker MayfieldPassing Yards

Right now, Baker Mayfield’s passing yards prop is set at 222.5 yards (+100/-137).

The public has bet the UNDER down to 222.5 (-137) after it opened @ 233.5 (-117).

Pros

Baker Mayfield’s 231.0 adjusted passing yards per game this season reflects a noteworthy growth in his passing prowess over last season’s 63.0 figure.
The Carolina Panthers cornerbacks grade out as the 8th-worst group of CBs in the league this year in pass coverage.

Cons

Our trusted projections expect the Buccaneers offensive gameplan to skew 4.6% more towards rushing than it did last year (adjusted for context) with offensive coordinator Dave Canales now calling the plays.
This week’s line implies a rushing game script for the Buccaneers, who are favored by 3.5 points.
Based on the game dynamics and the underlying approaches of each team, this contest is forecasted by the projections to see only 128.6 total plays called: the 4th-lowest number out of all the games this week.
Opposing quarterbacks teams have been afraid to rely on the passing game too much against the Carolina Panthers, totaling the 2nd-fewest attempts in the league (a measly 30.2 per game) this year.
This year, the daunting Carolina Panthers defense has given up a measly 188.0 adjusted passing yards per game to opposing QBs: the 2nd-best in the league.

Projection

THE BLITZ
239
Passing Yards