Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Zach CharbonnetRushing Yards
Player Props – Week 12
Seahawks vs. 49ers
Right now, Zach Charbonnet’s rushing yards prop is set at 54.5 yards (-112/-117).
The public has bet the OVER up to 54.5 (-112) after it opened @ 52.5 (-113).
Pros
- This week, Zach Charbonnet is expected by the predictive model to land in the 80th percentile among running backs with 14.5 carries.
- While Zach Charbonnet has garnered 26.6% of his team’s carries in games he has played this year, the projections expect him to be much more involved in Seattle’s rushing attack in this game at 65.6%.
- Zach Charbonnet’s running efficiency (5.11 adjusted yards per carry) has been some of the best in the league this year (88th percentile when it comes to RBs).
Cons
- At a -7-point disadvantage, the Seahawks are heavy underdogs in this game, suggesting much more of a focus on moving the ball through the air than their typical approach.
- Accounting for their underlying traits and matchup dynamics, the predictive model expects the Seattle Seahawks to run on 36.1% of their plays: the 5th-lowest rate among all teams this week.
- The model projects the Seahawks to run the fewest plays on offense on the slate this week with 61.5 plays, given their underlying strategic approach and game dynamics.
- The 8th-fewest plays in the league have been run by the Seattle Seahawks this year (a measly 56.0 per game on average).
- The opposing side have rushed for the 2nd-fewest adjusted yards in the league (just 79.0 per game) against the San Francisco 49ers defense this year.
Projection
THE BLITZ
64
Rushing Yards
64
Rushing Yards
