Prime-Time First TD Bets — Sunday Night Football, Week 16
Alex Christenson
Tank DellReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 12
Texans vs. Jaguars
Right now, Tank Dell’s receiving yards prop is set at 63.5 yards (-115/-115).
The public has bet the OVER up to 63.5 (-115) after it opened @ 62.5 (-115).
Pros
- The leading projections forecast this game to see the 4th-largest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 132.2 plays, accounting for the approaches of each team and game dynamics.
- The Houston Texans have called the 9th-most plays in the league this year, averaging a monstrous 60.5 plays per game.
- The passing attacks of both teams (as it relates to both volume and effectiveness) figure to benefit from the still “weather” conditions (read: no wind) inside this dome, while rush volume may go down.
- Opposing offenses have averaged 38.9 pass attempts per game versus the Jacksonville Jaguars defense this year: 5th-most in the NFL.
- Nathaniel Dell rates as one of the best WRs in the NFL this year, averaging an excellent 68.0 adjusted yards per game while checking in at the 88th percentile.
Cons
- The model projects the Houston Texans to be the 9th-least pass-heavy offense in the NFL (in a neutral context) at the moment with a 59.0% pass rate.
- This year, the tough Jacksonville Jaguars pass defense has given up the 10th-least yards-after-the-catch in football to opposing wideouts: a measly 3.6 YAC.
- When it comes to cornerbacks in covering pass-catchers, Jacksonville’s group of CBs has been exceptional this year, projecting as the 2nd-best in the NFL.
Projection
THE BLITZ
81
Receiving Yards
81
Receiving Yards
