NFL

Bets

November 22, 2023

Week 12 Player Props: Receiving Yards for Tank Dell from EV Insight

FTN Staff

Tank DellReceiving Yards

Right now, Tank Dell’s receiving yards prop is set at 63.5 yards (-115/-115).

The public has bet the OVER up to 63.5 (-115) after it opened @ 62.5 (-115).

Pros

The leading projections forecast this game to see the 4th-largest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 132.2 plays, accounting for the approaches of each team and game dynamics.
The Houston Texans have called the 9th-most plays in the league this year, averaging a monstrous 60.5 plays per game.
The passing attacks of both teams (as it relates to both volume and effectiveness) figure to benefit from the still “weather” conditions (read: no wind) inside this dome, while rush volume may go down.
Opposing offenses have averaged 38.9 pass attempts per game versus the Jacksonville Jaguars defense this year: 5th-most in the NFL.
Nathaniel Dell rates as one of the best WRs in the NFL this year, averaging an excellent 68.0 adjusted yards per game while checking in at the 88th percentile.

Cons

The model projects the Houston Texans to be the 9th-least pass-heavy offense in the NFL (in a neutral context) at the moment with a 59.0% pass rate.
This year, the tough Jacksonville Jaguars pass defense has given up the 10th-least yards-after-the-catch in football to opposing wideouts: a measly 3.6 YAC.
When it comes to cornerbacks in covering pass-catchers, Jacksonville’s group of CBs has been exceptional this year, projecting as the 2nd-best in the NFL.

Projection

THE BLITZ
81
Receiving Yards