Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Travis EtienneRushing Yards
Player Props – Week 12
Texans vs. Jaguars
Right now, Travis Etienne’s rushing yards prop is set at 65.5 yards (-120/-110).
The public has bet the OVER up to 65.5 (-120) after it opened @ 61.5 (-115).
Pros
- Given their underlying propensities and game dynamics, the Jacksonville Jaguars are expected by the projection model to run 66.9 offensive plays in this contest: the 4th-most on the slate this week.
- The 10th-most plays in football have been called by the Jacksonville Jaguars this year (a massive 59.9 per game on average).
- In this week’s contest, Travis Etienne is anticipated by the predictive model to secure a spot in the 83rd percentile among running backs with 15.2 rush attempts.
- Travis Etienne has been a more important option in his team’s ground game this year (65.5% Carry Share in games he has been on the field) than he was last year (51.6%).
- With an excellent total of 65.0 adjusted yards per game on the ground (92nd percentile), Travis Etienne stands among the leading pure runners in the league this year.
Cons
- The model projects the Jacksonville Jaguars to be the 8th-least run-heavy team on the slate this week with a 39.8% run rate, based on their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics.
- The passing games of both teams (as it relates to both volume and efficiency) figure to benefit from the calm “weather” conditions (meaning no wind) inside this dome, while run volume may drop.
- The Jacksonville Jaguars offensive line profiles as the 2nd-worst in the league last year at opening holes for runners.
- Travis Etienne’s 3.7 adjusted yards per carry this year reflects a meaningful decline in his rushing prowess over last year’s 5.1 mark.
- This year, the feeble Texans run defense has yielded a colossal 3.67 adjusted yards-per-carry (YPC) to the opposing run game: the 31st-highest rate in football.
Projection
THE BLITZ
69
Rushing Yards
69
Rushing Yards
