Prime-Time First TD Bets — Monday Night Football, Week 16
Alex Christenson
Dak PrescottPassing Yards
Player Props – Week 12
Cowboys vs. Commanders
Right now, Dak Prescott’s passing yards prop is set at 281.5 yards (-115/-115).
The public has bet the OVER up to 281.5 (-115) after it opened @ 263.5 (-115).
Pros
- The Dallas Cowboys have a new play-caller this year in offensive coordinator Brian Schottenheimer, and the model projects their pass/run mix to lean 6.8% more towards passing than it did last year (in a neutral context).
- The model projects the Cowboys to be the 9th-most pass-centric offense in the NFL (context-neutralized) at the moment with a 63.4% pass rate.
- Accounting for their underlying propensities and game dynamics, the Cowboys are predicted by the predictive model to call 66.3 total plays in this contest: the 7th-highest number on the slate this week.
- Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 38.7 pass attempts per game against the Commanders defense this year: 6th-most in football.
- Dak Prescott’s 270.0 adjusted passing yards per game this season reflects a substantial growth in his throwing skills over last season’s 241.0 rate.
Cons
- An extreme rushing game script is suggested by the Cowboys being a big 13.5-point favorite in this game.
Projection
THE BLITZ
287
Passing Yards
287
Passing Yards
