Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Tony PollardRushing Yards
Player Props – Week 12
Cowboys vs. Commanders
Right now, Tony Pollard’s rushing yards prop is set at 59.5 yards (-125/-105).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 59.5 (-105) after it opened @ 60.5 (-117).
Pros
- An extreme rushing game script is suggested by the Cowboys being a big 13.5-point favorite in this game.
- Accounting for their underlying propensities and game dynamics, the Cowboys are predicted by the predictive model to call 66.3 total plays in this contest: the 7th-highest number on the slate this week.
- The 6th-largest volume of plays in the NFL have been called by the Cowboys this year (a massive 60.9 per game on average).
- The model projects Tony Pollard to accrue 17.8 carries in this game, on balance, putting him in the 92nd percentile when it comes to running backs.
- Tony Pollard has been a more integral piece of his team’s running game this season (61.8% Carry Share in games he has played) than he was last season (41.6%).
Cons
- The Dallas Cowboys have a new play-caller this year in offensive coordinator Brian Schottenheimer, and the model projects their pass/run mix to lean 6.8% more towards passing than it did last year (in a neutral context).
- The model projects the Cowboys to be the 9th-least run-heavy team in football (adjusted for context) at the moment with a 36.6% run rate.
- The passing offenses of both teams (including both volume and effectiveness) stand to benefit from the calm “weather” conditions (i.e. no wind) inside this dome, while run volume may drop-off.
- Tony Pollard’s 2.72 yards-after-contact this season shows a material decrease in his rushing prowess over last season’s 3.82 rate.
- When it comes to the linebackers’ role in run defense, Washington’s collection of LBs has been excellent this year, ranking as the 8th-best in the league.
Projection
THE BLITZ
79
Rushing Yards
79
Rushing Yards
