Prime-Time First TD Bets — Monday Night Football, Week 16
Alex Christenson
Welcome to Hoops with Noops! We’ve got an NBA In-Season Tournament TNT Tuesday night, with several games that will be key in determining who wins their groups or advances to the next round.
I was optimistic about the IST before the season simply for the reason that anything that might make early regular season games even 1% more interesting is a good idea and my expectations have been surpassed. Perhaps it’s the chance to win the first ever IST or simply the nature of a prime competitor to want to win anything they can possibly win, but players seem to care about this. Several have mentioned the standings and even adjustments to their strategy in the fourth quarter, because point differential determines who advances to the next rounds.
Some of the betting trends we observed early have balanced out, but others persist. Overs did very well to start the IST but are now just 18-19. Underdogs continue to do well but are now profitable on the road at 11-7 against the spread combined with 12-6-1 ATS at home. 37 is still a small sample size of games, but the market seems to be correcting already. Let’s dive into Tuesday’s games and see what bets we should make.
NBA Best Bets for Tuesday
Indiana Pacers at Atlanta Hawks
Current Line – Hawks -4, 252
My Projection – Hawks 125, Pacers 124
Key Injuries – None
Do not adjust your screens — yes, this game does have the highest pre-game betting total in 20-plus years … and honestly, it might not be high enough. In terms of seconds per possessions, these are the two fastest teams in the NBA. Both attack relentlessly on the fast break and even can create those chances after their opponents make a basket. If you like to see as many shots as you possibly can then this is the game for you, my friend. Both teams are healthy and had the day off Monday, so this thing could finish in the 280s. As for the winner, I’m not sure why the market likes Atlanta so much. The schedule spot is a little wonky for the Pacers who leave home for just this game and return to Indiana to play tomorrow, but the Hawks play tomorrow as well and it’s not an arduous journey. My model has this just a one-point game and I like the matchup for the Pacers. Atlanta is a little bigger at most positions and has a deeper bench, but Indiana has the best player in Tyrese Haliburton and what I think is the best big man in Myles Turner. There are interesting matchups up and down the roster which should make for a competitive game that should be lined closer than four. I’ll take the Pacers +4 -112 at FanDuel, but +3.5 -110 is fine if that’s your only option.
Bet
Indiana Pacers +4 (-112, FanDuel Sportsbook)
Utah Jazz at Los Angeles Lakers
Current Line – Lakers -7.5, 238
My Projection – Lakers 119, Jazz 112
Key Injuries – Walker Kessler and Jarred Vanderbilt are out. LeBron James is questionable.
One of the hardest parts of handicapping basketball games is figuring out which team is going to dictate pace when a fast team plays a slow team, and we have a case of just that here. Utah is one of the 10 fastest teams in the NBA, and Los Angeles is one of the 10 slowest. Will the Lakers get pulled into running with their opponents, or will the Jazz get mired in the slow pace of their opponents? In general, I find that the better team is able to dictate game flow better and LA has good reason to keep things slow. Both teams have to play again Wednesday, the Lakers at home and the Jazz in Portland, and teams often try to keep their players fresh by keeping the pace down to limit running. That’s especially true for a veteran roster like LA and given that Wednesday’s opponent (the Mavericks) is much better and will require their best effort to defeat. If that’s the case, and we see LeBron dribbling while pointing in the half court instead of running up and down the floor then this total is much too high. Now, if the Jazz can start quickly and steal an early lead with some 3 pointers then maybe the Lakers try to match their pace to even the score and we see a total in the 240s, but I’m betting that’s not the case. I actually played this under 237 earlier, and although it’s never good to see the market going against you, this is a small move. If it closes at 240 or greater then I’ll be nervous and go back to check some of my pace calculations to see how the overall market got to such a big number. Either way, my money is on the under and I may add some alternate unders once LeBron is confirmed to be playing. Check the #nba-plays channel in the FTNBets Discord for those plays if I do make them.
Bet
Jazz/Lakers Under 238
Not For Noops – Quick Thoughts on Games I’m Not Betting
Toronto Raptors at Orlando Magic -2, 216
I was expecting to be an under in this game, but my projections actually came out a point higher than the current total. Both teams play good defense and have limitations on offense, but in a game this tight, free throw attempts can pile up and the pace quicken. I do lean to the Raptors here because the matchup is favorable for them with Wendell Carter not playing, but I’m not betting this game.
Cleveland Cavaliers at Philadelphia 76ers -8, 219
This is likely a knockout game for the In-Season Tournament, because the loser will be too far back to win the group or advance as a wild card. I’m not sure what the impact of that is, but I am sure the 76ers are a nightmare matchup for the Cavaliers, especially without Donovan Mitchell. I make this 76ers -9.5, so lean Philadelphia and might add some Joel Embiid overs in the FTNBets Discord. Whether as a Brooklyn Net or a Cleveland Cavalier, Jarrett Allen generally gets crushed by Joel Embiid.
Portland Trail Blazers at Phoenix Suns -13, 223.5
Well, this is annoying. How am I supposed to be a Portland team total under against a team with almost no interest in playing in defense? The answer is I can’t, and I’m not happy about that. The only angle I considered here was some Phoenix alternate spreads, but the number is already huge. If the Suns care about the IST they need to win by a lot of points to catch up in the point differential tiebreaker.
