Prime-Time First TD Bets — Monday Night Football, Week 16
Alex Christenson
Dalton SchultzReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 12
Texans vs. Jaguars
Right now, Dalton Schultz’s receiving yards prop is set at 40.5 yards (-110/-110).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 40.5 (-110) after it opened @ 44.5 (-114).
Pros
- The leading projections forecast this game to see the 4th-largest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 132.2 plays, accounting for the approaches of each team and game dynamics.
- The Houston Texans have called the 9th-most plays in the league this year, averaging a monstrous 60.5 plays per game.
- The passing attacks of both teams (as it relates to both volume and effectiveness) figure to benefit from the still “weather” conditions (read: no wind) inside this dome, while rush volume may go down.
- Opposing offenses have averaged 38.9 pass attempts per game versus the Jacksonville Jaguars defense this year: 5th-most in the NFL.
- Dalton Schultz has accrued quite a few more adjusted receiving yards per game (45.0) this year than he did last year (38.0).
Cons
- The model projects the Houston Texans to be the 9th-least pass-heavy offense in the NFL (in a neutral context) at the moment with a 59.0% pass rate.
- This year, the formidable Jacksonville Jaguars defense has conceded a feeble 64.5% Adjusted Completion Rate vs. opposing tight ends: the 2nd-best rate in the league.
- When it comes to linebackers in covering pass-catchers, Jacksonville’s collection of LBs has been tremendous this year, profiling as the 5th-best in the NFL.
Projection
THE BLITZ
51
Receiving Yards
51
Receiving Yards
