Week 12 Player Props: Rushing Yards for Tony Pollard from EV Insight

Tony PollardRushing Yards

Right now, Tony Pollard’s rushing yards prop is set at 59.5 yards (-125/-105).

The public has bet the UNDER down to 59.5 (-105) after it opened @ 60.5 (-117).

Pros

An extreme rushing game script is suggested by the Cowboys being a big 13.5-point favorite in this game.
Accounting for their underlying propensities and game dynamics, the Cowboys are predicted by the predictive model to call 66.3 total plays in this contest: the 7th-highest number on the slate this week.
The 6th-largest volume of plays in the NFL have been called by the Cowboys this year (a massive 60.9 per game on average).
The model projects Tony Pollard to accrue 17.8 carries in this game, on balance, putting him in the 92nd percentile when it comes to running backs.
Tony Pollard has been a more integral piece of his team’s running game this season (61.8% Carry Share in games he has played) than he was last season (41.6%).

Cons

The Dallas Cowboys have a new play-caller this year in offensive coordinator Brian Schottenheimer, and the model projects their pass/run mix to lean 6.8% more towards passing than it did last year (in a neutral context).
The model projects the Cowboys to be the 9th-least run-heavy team in football (adjusted for context) at the moment with a 36.6% run rate.
The passing offenses of both teams (including both volume and effectiveness) stand to benefit from the calm “weather” conditions (i.e. no wind) inside this dome, while run volume may drop-off.
Tony Pollard’s 2.72 yards-after-contact this season shows a material decrease in his rushing prowess over last season’s 3.82 rate.
When it comes to the linebackers’ role in run defense, Washington’s collection of LBs has been excellent this year, ranking as the 8th-best in the league.

Projection

THE BLITZ
79
Rushing Yards