Week 12 Player Props: Rushing Yards for Raheem Mostert from EV Insight

Raheem MostertRushing Yards

Right now, Raheem Mostert’s rushing yards prop is set at 59.5 yards (-143/+112).

The public has bet the UNDER down to 59.5 (+112) after it opened @ 60.5 (-112).

Pros

This week’s line implies an extreme rushing game script for the Dolphins, who are a huge favorite by 9.5 points.
The predictive model expects Raheem Mostert to accrue 17.2 rush attempts in this week’s contest, on balance, ranking him in the 92nd percentile among RBs.
Out of all running backs, Raheem Mostert ranks in the 91st percentile for rush attempts this year, comprising 58.4% of the workload in his offense’s running game.
Raheem Mostert’s 69.0 adjusted yards per game on the ground this season indicates a remarkable growth in his rushing talent over last season’s 54.0 rate.
This year, the deficient Jets run defense has yielded a staggering 134.0 adjusted yards per game on the ground to opposing squads: the 7th-most in the NFL.

Cons

The model projects the Dolphins to be the 6th-least run-heavy team in football (adjusted for context) right now with a 35.2% run rate.
The predictive model expects the Dolphins to run the 10th-fewest plays on offense among all teams this week with 64.0 plays, based on their underlying traits and game dynamics.
The 5th-lowest number of plays in the NFL have been called by the Miami Dolphins this year (a measly 54.2 per game on average).
As it relates to the linebackers’ role in run defense, New York’s LB corps has been great this year, projecting as the 4th-best in football.

Projection

THE BLITZ
81
Rushing Yards