Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Raheem MostertRushing Yards
Player Props – Week 12
Jets vs. Dolphins
Right now, Raheem Mostert’s rushing yards prop is set at 59.5 yards (-143/+112).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 59.5 (+112) after it opened @ 60.5 (-112).
Pros
- This week’s line implies an extreme rushing game script for the Dolphins, who are a huge favorite by 9.5 points.
- The predictive model expects Raheem Mostert to accrue 17.2 rush attempts in this week’s contest, on balance, ranking him in the 92nd percentile among RBs.
- Out of all running backs, Raheem Mostert ranks in the 91st percentile for rush attempts this year, comprising 58.4% of the workload in his offense’s running game.
- Raheem Mostert’s 69.0 adjusted yards per game on the ground this season indicates a remarkable growth in his rushing talent over last season’s 54.0 rate.
- This year, the deficient Jets run defense has yielded a staggering 134.0 adjusted yards per game on the ground to opposing squads: the 7th-most in the NFL.
Cons
- The model projects the Dolphins to be the 6th-least run-heavy team in football (adjusted for context) right now with a 35.2% run rate.
- The predictive model expects the Dolphins to run the 10th-fewest plays on offense among all teams this week with 64.0 plays, based on their underlying traits and game dynamics.
- The 5th-lowest number of plays in the NFL have been called by the Miami Dolphins this year (a measly 54.2 per game on average).
- As it relates to the linebackers’ role in run defense, New York’s LB corps has been great this year, projecting as the 4th-best in football.
Projection
THE BLITZ
81
Rushing Yards
81
Rushing Yards
