Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Jonathan TaylorRushing Yards
Player Props – Week 12
Colts vs. Buccaneers
Right now, Jonathan Taylor’s rushing yards prop is set at 77.5 yards (+105/-135).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 77.5 (-135) after it opened @ 79.5 (-115).
Pros
- The Indianapolis Colts feature a new play-caller this year in head coach Shane Steichen, and our trusted projections expect their pass/run mix to skew 1.2% more towards rushing than it did last year (adjusted for context).
- Our trusted projections expect the Colts to be the 7th-most run-focused team in the league (context-neutralized) at the moment with a 41.8% run rate.
- Based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics, the Colts are forecasted by the projection model to call 66.9 total plays in this game: the 4th-most on the slate this week.
- The 10th-most plays in the league have been called by the Indianapolis Colts this year (a monstrous 59.9 per game on average).
- The projections expect Jonathan Taylor to accrue 21.0 rush attempts this week, on balance, ranking him in the 98th percentile among running backs.
Cons
- The passing attacks of both teams (in terms of both volume and effectiveness) stand to benefit from the still “weather” conditions (i.e. zero wind) inside this dome, while rush volume may drop-off.
- Jonathan Taylor has run for substantially fewer adjusted yards per game (53.0) this year than he did last year (79.0).
- Jonathan Taylor’s 3.8 adjusted yards per carry this season reflects a meaningful drop-off in his running ability over last season’s 4.5 figure.
- Opposing teams have run for the 6th-fewest adjusted yards in football (just 95.0 per game) against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers defense this year.
Projection
THE BLITZ
90
Rushing Yards
90
Rushing Yards
