NBA Postseason Best Bets (5/14)
Alex Christenson
D.J. MooreReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 12
Vikings vs. Bears
Right now, D.J. Moore’s receiving yards prop is set at 62.5 yards (-110/-110).
The public has bet the OVER up to 62.5 (-110) after it opened @ 59.5 (-114).
Pros
- This game’s line implies a throwing game script for the Bears, who are -3-point underdogs.
- The pass games of both teams (as it relates to both volume and efficiency) ought to benefit from the calm “weather” conditions (as in zero wind) inside this dome, while ground volume may slide.
- D.J. Moore has run a route on 95.9% of his offense’s dropbacks this year, ranking him in the 97th percentile when it comes to wide receivers.
- D.J. Moore has accumulated significantly more adjusted receiving yards per game (76.0) this season than he did last season (49.0).
- This year, the feeble Minnesota Vikings defense has been torched for a whopping 171.0 adjusted receiving yards per game vs. opposing wide receivers: the worst in football.
Cons
- The model projects the Chicago Bears as the least pass-centric offense on the slate this week with a 52.1% pass rate, given their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics.
- Accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics, the Bears are forecasted by the predictive model to run only 62.5 offensive plays in this game: the lowest number on the slate this week.
- The Minnesota Vikings safeties grade out as the 3rd-best unit in football this year in pass coverage.
Projection
THE BLITZ
75
Receiving Yards
75
Receiving Yards
