Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Jerome FordRushing Yards
Player Props – Week 12
Broncos vs. Browns
Right now, Jerome Ford’s rushing yards prop is set at 53.5 yards (-110/-120).
The public has bet the OVER up to 53.5 (-110) after it opened @ 48.5 (-115).
Pros
- The predictive model expects the Cleveland Browns to be the 2nd-most run-heavy team among all teams this week with a 48.0% run rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- The Cleveland Browns have called the most plays in football this year, totaling a massive 66.9 plays per game.
- Jerome Ford has been much more involved in his offense’s running game this season (38.5% Carry Share in games he has been on the field) than he was last season (1.9%).
- With a fantastic total of 51.0 adjusted yards per game on the ground (78th percentile), Jerome Ford has been as one of the best pure runners in the NFL this year.
- This year, the poor Broncos run defense has been torched for a whopping 165.0 adjusted yards per game on the ground to opposing offenses: the worst in the league.
Cons
- Accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics, the Cleveland Browns are predicted by the predictive model to call only 63.5 offensive plays in this contest: the 7th-lowest number on the slate this week.
Projection
THE BLITZ
53
Rushing Yards
53
Rushing Yards
