Gross Bombs: NFL Props for Week 16
Josh Gross
Aidan O’ConnellPassing Yards
Player Props – Week 12
Raiders vs. Chiefs
Right now, Aidan O’Connell’s passing yards prop is set at 200.5 yards (+102/-139).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 200.5 (-139) after it opened @ 206.5 (-119).
Pros
- An extreme passing game script is indicated by the Raiders being a heavy -9.5-point underdog in this week’s game.
- This game will be played in a dome—which means no wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and increased passing effectiveness.
- As it relates to pocket protection (and the positive effect it has on all pass game stats), the O-line of the Raiders grades out as the best in the NFL this year.
- The Chiefs safeties project as the worst group of safeties in the league this year in regard to rushing the passer.
Cons
- The projections expect the Las Vegas Raiders to be the 2nd-least pass-focused team in the NFL (adjusted for context) right now with a 55.7% pass rate.
- The projections expect the Raiders to call the 6th-fewest offensive plays among all teams this week with 63.4 plays, given their underlying play style and game dynamics.
- The 4th-fewest plays in the league have been run by the Raiders this year (only 53.7 per game on average).
- Opposing offenses have averaged 31.0 pass attempts per game versus the Chiefs defense this year: 4th-fewest in the NFL.
- Opposing teams have passed for the 5th-fewest yards in football (just 195.0 adjusted yards per game) vs. the Chiefs defense this year.
Projection
THE BLITZ
241
Passing Yards
241
Passing Yards
