Gross Bombs: NFL Props for Week 16
Josh Gross
Happy Thanksgiving!
The NFL ensures that we have all-day entertainment with three classic matchups throughout the day. The first two games feature legendary matchups with the Lions hosting the Packers and the Cowboys hosting the Commanders. At night, we have a battle for divisional supremacy with the Seahawks hosting the 49ers. These teams are separated by just one game in the NFC West and will play each other twice in the next three weeks.
Each week, I will select my favorite prop bets for Thursday. You can find all our Week 12 player projections here at FTNBets. All of the available betting lines for this week’s opening matchup are available on our FTNBets Prop Shop, where you can easily shop around for the sportsbook with the best odds on each player or team.
Let’s take a look at my favorite prop for the Thanksgiving Day matchups.
Week 12 Player Props
Brian Robinson Over 65.5 Rushing/Receiving Yards
(-119, Caesars)
I have been touting Brian Robinson since August, believing offensive coordinator Eric Bieniemy would utilize his undervalued receiving ability along with his punishing ground game.
Per our FTN Fantasy Utilization Tool, Robinson ranks fourth among all running backs with 314 receiving yards despite only seeing 8% of the team’s targets. The absence of teammate Antonio Gibson over the last two weeks has opened the door for the Commanders to use Robinson even more. Over the past two weeks, Robinson has seen 15 targets, 13 receptions and 177 receiving yards.
Robinson will now face a Dallas team as the lead back in a team that is a 10-point underdog on the road, with an over/under of 48.5 points. Robinson will be involved in the offense regardless of gamescript and has shown the ability to break off long receptions throughout the season. Robinson has five receptions of 21 yards or more.
The Cowboys defense has been fantastic this season, but Robinson versatility puts this prop in play. He is averaging 50.7 rushing yards per game and has yet to face Dallas in his two-year career. This number is too low for a player that has shown efficiency in both the rushing and receiving game. Our FTN Bets Model projects Robinson for over 78 rushing and receiving yards.
Jared Goff Over 1.5 Rushing Yards
(-110, Bet365)
Certainly an odd prop to pick, but I’m backing Detroit quarterback Jared Goff to eclipse the challenging 1.5 rushing yards on Thanksgiving.
Green Bay has allowed the fourth-most rushing yards to opposing quarterbacks, and Goff had 10 rushing yards in Detroit’s earlier win at Green Bay. In fact, Goff has exceeded the number in seven of the last eight games against NFC North opponents.
There is always the risk of losing points on a kneeldown, but I’m willing to embrace that risk on a prop that most will overlook. Our FTN Bets model projects Goff for 5.1 rushing yards, giving me a nice cushion on this total.
