Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Javonte WilliamsRushing Yards
Player Props – Week 12
Broncos vs. Browns
Right now, Javonte Williams’s rushing yards prop is set at 55.5 yards (-115/-115).
Pros
- The predictive model expects the Broncos offensive approach to skew 1.4% more towards running than it did last season (in a neutral context) with head coach Sean Payton now calling the plays.
- Accounting for their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics, the predictive model expects the Denver Broncos to run on 46.8% of their chances: the 6th-greatest rate on the slate this week.
- The predictive model expects Javonte Williams to accrue 17.8 carries in this contest, on balance, ranking him in the 94th percentile when it comes to RBs.
- Among all running backs, Javonte Williams ranks in the 88th percentile for carries this year, making up 56.3% of the workload in his offense’s rushing attack.
- Javonte Williams has generated 51.0 adjusted rushing yards per game this year, one of the highest marks in the NFL among running backs (78th percentile).
Cons
- The model projects this game to have the 2nd-lowest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 126.4 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
- The Broncos have called the 2nd-fewest plays in the league this year, totaling just 53.2 plays per game.
- The weather forecast calls for 3-mph wind in this game. Low wind typically means higher pass volume, and reduced run volume, higher touchdown potential, and better passing efficiency.
- Opposing squads have run for the 6th-fewest adjusted yards in the league (just 95.0 per game) vs. the Browns defense this year.
- The Cleveland defensive tackles project as the 9th-best DT corps in football this year in regard to stopping the run.
Projection
THE BLITZ
73
Rushing Yards
73
Rushing Yards
