Prime-Time First TD Bets — Monday Night Football, Week 16
Alex Christenson
James CookRushing Yards
Player Props – Week 12
Eagles vs. Bills
Right now, James Cook’s rushing yards prop is set at 49.5 yards (+110/-143).
The public has bet the OVER up to 49.5 (+110) after it opened @ 46.5 (-115).
Pros
- James Cook has been a much bigger part of his offense’s running game this season (50.6% Carry Share in games he has been on the field) than he was last season (19.1%).
- James Cook has run for significantly more adjusted yards per game (61.0) this year than he did last year (32.0).
Cons
- The predictive model expects the Buffalo Bills to be the 5th-least run-heavy team on the slate this week with a 38.7% run rate, accounting for their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics.
- With respect to a defense’s effect on tempo, at 29.17 seconds per snap, the model projects the Buffalo Bills as the most sluggish in the NFL (adjusted for context) at the moment.
- The Buffalo O-line ranks as the 9th-worst in the league last year at blocking for rushers.
- James Cook’s 4.9 adjusted yards per carry this year reflects a significant reduction in his running skills over last year’s 5.8 rate.
- This year, the strong Eagles run defense has given up a feeble 75.0 adjusted yards per game on the ground to opposing offenses: the fewest in football.
Projection
THE BLITZ
60
Rushing Yards
60
Rushing Yards
