NFL

Bets

November 22, 2023

Week 12 Player Props: Rushing Yards for James Cook from EV Insight

FTN Staff

James CookRushing Yards

Right now, James Cook’s rushing yards prop is set at 49.5 yards (+110/-143).

The public has bet the OVER up to 49.5 (+110) after it opened @ 46.5 (-115).

Pros

James Cook has been a much bigger part of his offense’s running game this season (50.6% Carry Share in games he has been on the field) than he was last season (19.1%).
James Cook has run for significantly more adjusted yards per game (61.0) this year than he did last year (32.0).

Cons

The predictive model expects the Buffalo Bills to be the 5th-least run-heavy team on the slate this week with a 38.7% run rate, accounting for their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics.
With respect to a defense’s effect on tempo, at 29.17 seconds per snap, the model projects the Buffalo Bills as the most sluggish in the NFL (adjusted for context) at the moment.
The Buffalo O-line ranks as the 9th-worst in the league last year at blocking for rushers.
James Cook’s 4.9 adjusted yards per carry this year reflects a significant reduction in his running skills over last year’s 5.8 rate.
This year, the strong Eagles run defense has given up a feeble 75.0 adjusted yards per game on the ground to opposing offenses: the fewest in football.

Projection

THE BLITZ
60
Rushing Yards