Week 12 Player Props: Rushing Yards for Gus Edwards from EV Insight

Gus EdwardsRushing Yards

Right now, Gus Edwards’s rushing yards prop is set at 48.5 yards (-120/-110).

The public has bet the OVER up to 48.5 (-120) after it opened @ 47.5 (-120).

Pros

This week’s spread implies a running game script for the Ravens, who are favored by 3.5 points.
The predictive model expects the Baltimore Ravens to be the 6th-most run-centric team among all teams this week with a 46.6% run rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
Based on their underlying propensities and game dynamics, the Baltimore Ravens are expected by the predictive model to run 66.0 total plays in this contest: the 7th-most among all teams this week.
Gus Edwards has generated 54.0 adjusted yards per game on the ground this year, one of the biggest figures in the NFL among RBs (82nd percentile).
With a remarkable total of 4.45 adjusted yards per carry (76th percentile), Gus Edwards stands among the leading running backs in football this year.

Cons

The Ravens boast a new play-caller this season in offensive coordinator Todd Monken, and the projections expect their pass/run mix to tilt 3.6% more towards passing than it did last season (context-neutralized).
Gus Edwards has been a more important option in his team’s offense this season, staying in the game for 44.4% of snaps vs just 26.4% last season.

Projection

THE BLITZ
46
Rushing Yards