Prime-Time First TD Bets — Monday Night Football, Week 16
Alex Christenson
Gus EdwardsRushing Yards
Player Props – Week 12
Chargers vs. Ravens
Right now, Gus Edwards’s rushing yards prop is set at 48.5 yards (-120/-110).
The public has bet the OVER up to 48.5 (-120) after it opened @ 47.5 (-120).
Pros
- This week’s spread implies a running game script for the Ravens, who are favored by 3.5 points.
- The predictive model expects the Baltimore Ravens to be the 6th-most run-centric team among all teams this week with a 46.6% run rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- Based on their underlying propensities and game dynamics, the Baltimore Ravens are expected by the predictive model to run 66.0 total plays in this contest: the 7th-most among all teams this week.
- Gus Edwards has generated 54.0 adjusted yards per game on the ground this year, one of the biggest figures in the NFL among RBs (82nd percentile).
- With a remarkable total of 4.45 adjusted yards per carry (76th percentile), Gus Edwards stands among the leading running backs in football this year.
Cons
- The Ravens boast a new play-caller this season in offensive coordinator Todd Monken, and the projections expect their pass/run mix to tilt 3.6% more towards passing than it did last season (context-neutralized).
- Gus Edwards has been a more important option in his team’s offense this season, staying in the game for 44.4% of snaps vs just 26.4% last season.
Projection
THE BLITZ
46
Rushing Yards
46
Rushing Yards
