Week 12 Player Props: Receiving Yards for Tucker Kraft from EV Insight

Tucker KraftReceiving Yards

Right now, Tucker Kraft’s receiving yards prop is set at 26.5 yards (-105/-125).

The public has bet the UNDER down to 26.5 (-125) after it opened @ 27.5 (-110).

Pros

An extreme passing game script is suggested by the Packers being an enormous -8.5-point underdog in this week’s contest.
Given their underlying traits and matchup dynamics, the model projects the Packers to pass on 64.3% of their downs: the 2nd-highest frequency on the slate this week.
This game will be played in a dome—meaning no wind, increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and better passing effectiveness.
The predictive model expects Tucker Kraft to total 5.1 targets in this week’s game, on balance, placing him in the 84th percentile among TEs.
With a remarkable 84.5% Adjusted Completion% (80th percentile) this year, Tucker Kraft places among the most sure-handed receivers in football among TEs.

Cons

Based on their underlying play style and game dynamics, the Packers are predicted by the model to call only 61.9 plays on offense in this game: the 2nd-lowest number on the slate this week.
The Packers have called the 9th-fewest plays in football this year, averaging just 56.1 plays per game.
As it relates to air yards, Tucker Kraft ranks in just the 22nd percentile among tight ends this year, averaging just 2.0 per game.
This year, the imposing Detroit Lions defense has allowed a mere 69.9% Adjusted Completion Rate versus opposing TEs: the 10th-best rate in football.

Projection

THE BLITZ
34
Receiving Yards