Prime-Time First TD Bets — Monday Night Football, Week 16
Alex Christenson
Adam ThielenReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 12
Titans vs. Panthers
Right now, Adam Thielen’s receiving yards prop is set at 68.5 yards (-115/-115).
The public has bet the OVER up to 68.5 (-115) after it opened @ 64.5 (-115).
Pros
- The projections expect the Panthers offensive strategy to skew 6.6% more towards the passing game than it did last season (in a neutral context) with offensive coordinator Thomas Brown now calling the plays.
- A throwing game script is implied by the Panthers being a -3.5-point underdog in this week’s contest.
- The Carolina Panthers have called the 3rd-most plays in football this year, averaging a colossal 62.1 plays per game.
- The model projects Adam Thielen to accumulate 9.0 targets in this week’s game, on balance, putting him in the 92nd percentile among WRs.
- Adam Thielen has compiled quite a few more adjusted receiving yards per game (77.0) this season than he did last season (47.0).
Cons
- The leading projections forecast the Panthers to run the 2nd-fewest plays on offense on the slate this week with 62.6 plays, given their underlying traits and game dynamics.
- Opposing QBs teams have been reluctant to rely on the passing game too much against the Titans, totaling the 8th-fewest attempts in the NFL (just 33.8 per game) this year.
- The Carolina Panthers offensive line grades out as the 2nd-worst in the league this year in pass protection, which has a harmful influence on all passing game stats across the board.
Projection
THE BLITZ
64
Receiving Yards
64
Receiving Yards
