Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
David MontgomeryRushing Yards
Player Props – Week 12
Lions vs. Packers
Right now, David Montgomery’s rushing yards prop is set at 66.5 yards (-125/-105).
The public has bet the OVER up to 66.5 (-125) after it opened @ 66.5 (-120).
Pros
- An extreme rushing game script is implied by the Lions being a massive 7.5-point favorite this week.
- In this contest, David Montgomery is predicted by the model to position himself in the 87th percentile when it comes to RBs with 13.8 carries.
- David Montgomery has run for substantially more adjusted yards per game (90.0) this year than he did last year (48.0).
- David Montgomery’s running effectiveness has gotten a boost this season, averaging 5.34 adjusted yards-per-carry compared to a mere 3.84 figure last season.
- This year, the anemic Packers run defense has given up a massive 138.0 adjusted rushing yards per game to the opposing side: the 3rd-most in football.
Cons
- The passing attacks of both teams (as it relates to both volume and effectiveness) figure to benefit from the still “weather” conditions (i.e. no wind) inside this dome, while ground volume may decline.
- The model projects David Montgomery to be much less involved in his team’s rushing attack in this week’s game (50.4% projected Carry Share) than he has been this year (61.0% in games he has played).
Projection
THE BLITZ
58
Rushing Yards
58
Rushing Yards
