Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Christian McCaffreyRushing Yards
Player Props – Week 12
Seahawks vs. 49ers
Right now, Christian McCaffrey’s rushing yards prop is set at 75.5 yards (-110/-110).
Pros
- With a 7-point advantage, the 49ers are heavily favored this week, suggesting much more of a focus on rushing than their usual approach.
- Accounting for their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics, the leading projections forecast the San Francisco 49ers to run on 47.4% of their chances: the 5th-highest clip on the slate this week.
- The predictive model expects Christian McCaffrey to total 18.6 carries in this week’s game, on average, putting him in the 95th percentile among RBs.
- As it relates to opening holes for runners (and the significance it has on all run game metrics), the offensive line of the San Francisco 49ers profiles as the 7th-best in the league last year.
- Christian McCaffrey’s 90.0 adjusted yards per game on the ground this season marks a meaningful gain in his rushing talent over last season’s 68.0 mark.
Cons
- The leading projections forecast the 49ers to call the 5th-fewest plays on offense on the slate this week with 62.6 plays, given their underlying play style and game dynamics.
- The 3rd-fewest plays in the NFL have been called by the San Francisco 49ers this year (only 53.5 per game on average).
- Christian McCaffrey has been much more involved in his team’s offense this season, staying in the game for 81.9% of snaps compared to just 71.5% last season.
Projection
THE BLITZ
85
Rushing Yards
85
Rushing Yards
