NFL

Bets

November 22, 2023

Week 12 Player Props: Rushing Yards for Brian Robinson from EV Insight

FTN Staff

Brian RobinsonRushing Yards

Right now, Brian Robinson’s rushing yards prop is set at 41.5 yards (-110/-110).

The public has bet the UNDER down to 41.5 (-110) after it opened @ 43.5 (-114).

Pros

Brian Robinson has earned 60.8% of his offense’s rushing play calls this year, placing him in the 93rd percentile among RBs.

Cons

The projections expect the Washington Commanders offensive gameplan to skew 13.6% more towards passing than it did last season (context-neutralized) with offensive coordinator Eric Bieniemy now calling the plays.
An extreme throwing game script is indicated by the Commanders being a giant -13.5-point underdog in this game.
Based on their underlying traits and matchup dynamics, our trusted projections expect the Commanders to run on 29.7% of their downs: the lowest frequency among all teams this week.
Our trusted projections expect the Commanders offense to be the 10th-most sluggish paced team in football (in a neutral context) at the present time, averaging 28.34 seconds per play.
Brian Robinson has rushed for many fewer adjusted yards per game (48.0) this year than he did last year (63.0).

Projection

THE BLITZ
49
Rushing Yards