Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Breece HallRushing Yards
Player Props – Week 12
Jets vs. Dolphins
Right now, Breece Hall’s rushing yards prop is set at 50.5 yards (-110/-120).
The public has bet the OVER up to 50.5 (-110) after it opened @ 48.5 (-110).
Pros
- The weather forecast calls for 12-mph wind in this game. High wind generally means reduced pass volume (and increased run volume) and decreased passing effectiveness.
- In this week’s game, Breece Hall is forecasted by the predictive model to find himself in the 84th percentile among RBs with 15.0 carries.
- Among all RBs, Breece Hall ranks in the 87th percentile for carries this year, taking on 55.6% of the workload in his offense’s run game.
- Breece Hall checks in as one of the best running backs in football at grinding out extra rushing yardage, averaging an impressive 3.25 yards-after-contact this year while checking in at the 93rd percentile.
- As it relates to the defensive tackles’ role in run defense, Miami’s group of DTs has been dreadful this year, profiling as the 2nd-worst in the league. in the league.
Cons
- The New York Jets will be forced to utilize backup quarterback Tim Boyle in this contest, which usually means fewer pass attempts and more rushes.
- The Jets are a massive 9.5-point underdog in this week’s contest, indicating an extreme passing game script.
- Given their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics, the predictive model expects the Jets to run on 37.4% of their chances: the 5th-lowest rate on the slate this week.
- Accounting for their underlying strategic approach and game dynamics, the New York Jets are anticipated by the projection model to call just 63.9 total plays in this contest: the 9th-fewest on the slate this week.
- This year, the anemic Dolphins run defense has yielded a colossal 4.08 adjusted yards-per-carry (YPC) to the opposition’s ground game: the 23rd-worst rate in football.
Projection
THE BLITZ
66
Rushing Yards
66
Rushing Yards
